Abstract
This strategic foresight study aims to understand the shifts that might take place in education systems in low- and middle-income country (LMIC) contexts, given developments in the increase in global conflict and crises that might occur over the next 10 years.
It begins by capturing twelve trends, relating to conflict and crisis, that might affect the development of education systems in LMICs. After identifying trends, we combined them to sketch five concrete, tangible scenarios.
This understanding will inform a multi-year programme of work, addressing how LMICs can strengthen their capacity, in light of such future possibilities.
An introduction to this strategic foresight study
The next ten years will see big challenges for education systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). IDRC and EdTech Hub believe that two drivers of change will fundamentally shift national education systems: developments in artificial intelligence (AI), and the increase in conflict and crisis around the world.
To support governments and education stakeholders, we have embarked on a multi-year programme of work, aimed at answering the following research question: What will be the key challenges facing national education systems over the next ten years, with a specific focus on artificial intelligence and education in conflict and crisis settings… and how can governments in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) build capacity to successfully overcome those challenges?
To understand how governments in LMICs and education stakeholders can build capacity, we need to better understand the shifts that might take place in education systems. This is what this strategic foresight study aims to do. Our goal is to explore possible futures for education systems in LMICs. This exploration will go on to conduct research on how governments in LMIC contexts might adapt and build capacity in light of such futures.
This document shares Part 2 of our strategic foresight study: 12 trends and 5 scenarios for the impact of conflict and crisis on LMIC education systems. Part 1 of our study, which includes 12 trends and 5 scenarios for the impact of developments in AI on education systems, is available here.
Authors and contributors
Rahman, Asad (Author)
Freeman, Abigail (Author)
Citation
Rahman, A., & Freeman, A. (2025). Education in Conflict and Crisis in 2035: Twelve trends and five scenarios for how the future might unfold [Technical Report]. EdTech Hub. https://doi.org/10.53832/edtechhub.1126
Link to this record
https://docs.edtechhub.org/lib/QGDI4RK2
Key themes
- Fragile and conflict affected contexts
- Refugees, migrants and displaced persons
Type
- Technical Report
